據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年8月11日報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的《短期能源展望》（STEO）報告中表示，今年美國原油日產(chǎn)量平均將為1110萬桶，到2022年將增至1180萬桶，低于此前的預(yù)測。
EIA還表示，5月份以來的最新月度生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國石油日平均產(chǎn)量為1120萬桶，該機構(gòu)預(yù)計這一數(shù)字在10月前后開始上升之前將保持相對不變。 據(jù)EIA稱，這一增長將持續(xù)到2022年。
美國的在用鉆機數(shù)最近一直在上升，8月第一周達到了491部，比去年同期增加了244部。 然而，仍遠(yuǎn)低于2019年8月初790部的在用鉆機數(shù)。
雖然2021年的石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測與上個月的STEO版本相對不變，但2022年的預(yù)測顯示出比之前預(yù)期小幅增長：7月份，EIA預(yù)測2022年的石油平均日產(chǎn)量為1220萬桶。
石油產(chǎn)量下調(diào)可能與歐佩克產(chǎn)量上升有關(guān)，EIA目前預(yù)計歐佩克產(chǎn)量將從今年的2650萬桶天升至2022年的2870萬桶/天。
EIA指出，歐佩克和美國產(chǎn)量的增加將推動國際油價下跌， 預(yù)測2022年布倫特原油的平均價格為66美元/桶，這是因為“歐佩克+產(chǎn)量的持續(xù)增長和美國致密油產(chǎn)量的加速增長，以及其他供應(yīng)的增長，將超過全球石油消費的減速增長。”
即便如此，EIA預(yù)計，到2022年，全球石油和液體燃料的消費量將比今年增加360萬桶/天，達到1.012億桶/天。 然而，由于燃料需求反彈，EIA預(yù)計今年全球石油日消耗量將比去年增加530萬桶。
李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)
原文如下：
EIA Lowers Oil Production Expectations For 2022
U.S. crude oil production this year will average 11.1 million bpd and will rise to 11.8 million bpd in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook - down from its previous forecast.
The agency added that the most recent monthly data on production, from May, showed a daily average of 11.2 million, which the agency expects to remain relatively unchanged until about October when it would start rising. The rise would continue through 2022, according to the EIA.
The U.S. rig count has been on the rise lately, hitting 491 in the first week of August, up by 244 rigs from the same period last year. However, it was much lower than the active rig count in early August 2019, which stood at 790.
While the 2021 output projection is relatively unchanged from last month’s edition of the STEO, the 2022 projection shows a smaller increase than previously expected: in July, the EIA forecast 2022 oil output at 12.2 million bpd.
The downward revision probably has to do with rising OPEC production, which the EIA now expects to reach 28.7 million bpd in 2022, from 26.5 million bpd this year with all the production cuts.
This increased production from both OPEC and U.S. production will push international oil prices lower, the EIA noted, forecasting an average 2022 price for Brent of $66 per barrel as “continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production—along with other supply growth—will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption.”
Even so, the EIA expects that the global consumption of oil and liquid fuels will increase in 2022, by 3.6 million bpd from this year, to 101.2 million bpd. This year, however, thanks to the rebound in fuel demand, the EIA sees global consumption 5.3 million bpd higher than it was last year.
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