據2月15日Oil Monster消息：摩根大通全球股票研究表示，歐佩克+產量不足和產能過剩問題可能會導致石油市場供應緊張，油價最早可能在今年第二季度達到每桶125美元。

該行在2月11日的一份報告中表示:“供應不足將在2022年持續上升，因為歐佩克+不太可能偏離目標配額增長，這將推高油價每桶逾30美元的風險溢價。”

周一，由于烏俄緊張局勢升級，布倫特原油交易價格約為每桶94.55美元，而美國西得克薩斯中質原油(WTI)交易價格約為每桶93.19美元。

歐佩克及其盟友(即歐佩克+)最近將月產量目標提高了40萬桶/天，但多次未能實現。

在多年投資不足后，一些參與國正在努力提高產出。

國際能源署(IEA)在其最新月度報告中表示，1月份歐佩克+目標產量與實際產量之間的差距已擴大至90萬桶/天。

“這種表現不佳的情況出現在一個關鍵時刻，在我們看來，隨著全球其他產油國陷入困境，歐佩克+國家內部投資不足和疫情后石油需求上升的共同作用將導致潛在的能源危機。”摩根大通表示。

“此外，我們注意到非歐佩克產油國對油價上漲的供應反應平淡(主要是更加關注過渡/現金回報)，這可能會進一步增加10美元/桶的溢價。”分析師補充道。

馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Tight Oil Market Could See Prices Hit $125 in Q2, JP Morgan Says

Shortfalls in OPEC+ production and spare capacity concerns are likely to keep the oil market tight and prices could hit $125 per barrel as early as the second quarter of this year, JP Morgan Global Equity Research said.

"Supply undershoot set to rise through 2022 as OPEC+ unlikely to deviate from targeted quota increases – driving a higher risk premium of more than $30 per barrel to oil prices," the bank said in a note dated Feb. 11.

Brent crude on Monday was trading around $94.55 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $93.19 a barrel around 1107 GMT amid escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has raised its monthly output target by 400,000 barrels per day recently but has repeatedly failed to achieve those increases.

Some participating countries are struggling to ramp up output following years of under-investment.

The International Energy Agency in its last monthly report said the gap between the OPEC+ target and actual output in January had widened to 900,000 bpd.

"This underperformance comes at a critical juncture – and in our view, as other global producers falter, the combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and post-pandemic rising oil demand will dovetail to a potential point of energy crisis," JP Morgan said.

"In addition, we note a muted supply response by non-OPEC producers to higher prices (led by a greater focus on transition/cash return) could add a further $10/bbl premium," the analysts added.

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