石油市場目前非常關(guān)注熊市信號，原油價(jià)格反映出對經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、美國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩或衰退以及歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂  

全球海上石油貿(mào)易正在放緩，運(yùn)費(fèi)率正在回歸到更為正常的水平  

惠譽(yù)國際評級認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)和英國目前預(yù)計(jì)將在今年晚些時(shí)候進(jìn)入衰退，而美國將在2023年中期遭遇溫和衰退

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月18日報(bào)道，自6月初的近期高點(diǎn)以來，油價(jià)迄今每桶已經(jīng)下跌大約30美元，當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他國家央行還沒有開始大舉加息，以對抗失控的通脹。緊縮的貨幣政策預(yù)計(jì)將減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，而一些金融市場指標(biāo)表明，市場預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退，這可能會(huì)減緩全球石油需求增長。 

最受關(guān)注的主要預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)——石油輸出國組織（歐佩克）、美國能源信息署和國際能源署——繼續(xù)預(yù)計(jì)，今明兩年全球石油需求都會(huì)增長，2023年的需求將超過疫情暴發(fā)前的水平。 

然而，石油市場目前非常關(guān)注熊市信號，油價(jià)反映出人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、歐洲主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體衰退以及美國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩或衰退的擔(dān)憂。

最近的幾項(xiàng)金融和貿(mào)易指標(biāo)都顯示全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，市場將其視為未來幾個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退預(yù)期升溫的信號。 

路透社高級市場分析師約翰·坎普指出，盡管美國就業(yè)市場穩(wěn)定，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平仍然很高，但從股票期貨來看，金融市場顯示，未來6個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)周期出現(xiàn)大幅下滑或陷入衰退的可能性更高。  

此外，石油期貨的未平倉權(quán)益也在下降，因?yàn)樵S多投資者由于高波動(dòng)性而逃離市場，從而加劇流動(dòng)性下降帶來的波動(dòng)性。

在最近的一項(xiàng)評估中，指標(biāo)顯示全球海上石油貿(mào)易增長放緩，這一跡象表明經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩正在進(jìn)行，主要市場的衰退可能很快成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，威脅到全球石油需求。 

全球海事和航運(yùn)業(yè)研究和咨詢服務(wù)提供商表示，本周德魯里世界集裝箱指數(shù)自去年4月以來首次跌破每個(gè)40英尺長集裝箱運(yùn)費(fèi)5000美元，這是運(yùn)費(fèi)率“回歸理智”的強(qiáng)烈信號。本周綜合指數(shù)下跌8%，連續(xù)第29周下跌，與去年同期相比已下跌52%。 

惠譽(yù)國際評級近日表示，歐元區(qū)和英國目前預(yù)計(jì)將在今年晚些時(shí)候進(jìn)入衰退，而美國將在2023年中期遭遇溫和衰退，并將今年全球GDP增長預(yù)期下調(diào)至2.4%，比6月份的預(yù)測下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。 目前預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率僅為1.7%，下降1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

惠譽(yù)國際評級首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布萊恩·庫爾頓表示：“近幾個(gè)月來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了一場完美風(fēng)暴，歐洲的天然氣危機(jī)、加息速度急劇加快，以及房地產(chǎn)市場進(jìn)一步下滑。”

石油市場也對持續(xù)上調(diào)利率帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩感到擔(dān)憂。克利夫蘭聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長洛雷塔·梅斯特8月末表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在抑制通脹方面還有更多工作要做，關(guān)鍵利率需要在2023年初升至4%以上，并保持在這一水平。在連續(xù)兩次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)（0.75%）后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前的目標(biāo)政策利率在2.25%-2.5%之間。 

然而，歐佩克仍對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長持樂觀態(tài)度，在最新的《月度石油市場報(bào)告》(MOMR)中稱，今年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將保持在3.1%的強(qiáng)勁水平，明年將繼續(xù)保持3.1%。這一預(yù)測表明，盡管市場擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將保持健康增長。

國際能源署將今年全球石油日需求增長預(yù)期下調(diào)11萬桶，至200萬桶。 

據(jù)石油經(jīng)紀(jì)公司PVM oil Associates稱，短期內(nèi)的石油供應(yīng)和需求一樣不確定。“預(yù)測石油平衡的不確定因素可能是石油等式的供應(yīng)端，但在預(yù)測未來石油需求方面顯然也缺乏共識。這使得預(yù)測幾乎是不可能的，在不久的將來沒有任何確定性。”PVM oil Associates如是說。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fears Of Economic Slowdown Cap Crude Prices

·     The oil market is currently very much focused on the bearish signals, with prices reflecting fears of slowdown , a slowdown or recession in the U.S., and a recession in Europe.

·     Global maritime trade is slowing down and freight rates are returning to more normal levels.

·     Fitch: The Eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year, while the U.S. will suffer a mild recession in mid-2023.

Oil prices have declined by around $30 a barrel since the recent peak in early June before the Fed and other central banks started aggressive interest rate hikes to fight runaway inflation.  The tightening monetary policy is expected to slow economic growth, while several financial market indicators suggest that the markets expect recessions, which could slow global oil demand growth. 

The most closely watched major forecasters – OPEC, EIA, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) – continue to expect growth in global oil demand both this year and next, with demand outpacing pre-COVID levels in 2023.

Yet, the oil market is currently very much focused on the bearish signals, with prices reflecting fears of an economic slowdown, a recession in Europe’s major economies, and a slowdown or recession in the United States. 

Several recent financial and trade indicators point to a slowdown, and the market is taking that as a cue for rising expectations of a recession at some point over the next few months. 

Despite a solid job market in the U.S. and still a high level of economic activity, the financial markets – as seen in equity futures – point to higher chances of a major decline in the economic cycle, or a recession, over the next six months, Reuters’s senior market analyst John Kemp notes. 

Then there is the falling open interest in oil futures as many investors have fled the market due to high volatility, thus exacerbating that volatility as liquidity drops. 

In one of the most recent assessments, indicators point to a global maritime trade growth slowdown, in a sign that the economic slowdown is underway and a recession in major markets could soon materialize, threatening oil demand. 

This week, the Drewry World Container Index fell below $5,000 per 40ft-foot container for the first time since April 2021—a strong signal of a “return to sanity” for freight rates, the provider of research and consulting services to the global maritime and shipping industry said. The composite index fell by 8% this week, the 29th consecutive weekly decrease, and has dropped by 52% when compared with the same week last year.

The Eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year, while the U.S. will suffer a mild recession in mid-2023, Fitch Ratings said this week, revising down its world GDP growth forecast to 2.4% in 2022, down by 0.5 percentage points from the June forecast. Global economic growth is now expected at just 1.7% in 2023, a cut of 1 percentage point. 

“We’ve had something of a perfect storm for the global economy in recent months, with the gas crisis in Europe, a sharp acceleration in interest rate hikes and a deepening property slump,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch. 

The oil market is also apprehensive of the slowdown expected from continued interest rate hikes. The Fed has more work to do in taming inflation, and the key interest rate needs to move up to above 4% by early 2023 and stay there, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said at the end of last month. The Fed’s current target policy rate is in the 2.25%-2.5% range, after two consecutive hikes of 75 basis points, or 0.75%.  

OPEC, however, remains upbeat on global economic growth, saying in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that growth is set to remain robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year, in a forecast suggesting that the cartel expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession. 

The IEA cut its global oil demand growth estimate by 110,000 bpd to 2 million bpd for 2022.  

Supply in the short term is as uncertain as demand is, according to oil broker PVM Oil Associates.

“The wild card in predicting oil balance might be the supply side of the oil equation but there is a tangible lack of consensus in foreseeing future oil demand, too. This makes forecasting close to impossible and no certainty is anticipated in the near future,” PVM said.