據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2023年4月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在4月11日發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告中上調(diào)了其對(duì)2023年和2024年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨平均價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)。

根據(jù)4月份的STEO報(bào)告，EIA現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均每桶為85.01美元，明年平均每桶為81.21美元。EIA此前在3月7日發(fā)布的STEO報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，2023年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶82.95美元，2024年為每桶77.57美元。

EIA在最新的STEO報(bào)告中表示：“我們預(yù)測(cè)的2023年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶85美元，比上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)每桶上漲2美元。”

EIA補(bǔ)充稱：“價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)上漲反映了2023年全球原油產(chǎn)量減少的預(yù)測(cè)，以及全球原油消費(fèi)前景相對(duì)不變。”

EIA在最新的STEO報(bào)告中警告稱：“盡管我們對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)更高，但最近銀行業(yè)出現(xiàn)的問題提高了經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求增長(zhǎng)低于我們預(yù)測(cè)的可能性，這有可能導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。”

EIA在4月份的STEO報(bào)告中指出，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)一年全球石油市場(chǎng)將相對(duì)平衡。

EIA在4月份的STEO報(bào)告中表示：“全球原油庫(kù)存在2022年日增40萬(wàn)桶，在2023年第一季度日增110萬(wàn)桶，在2023年下半年庫(kù)存將基本保持不變。” 

“我們預(yù)計(jì)從2024年開始，全球原油庫(kù)存平均每天將增加50萬(wàn)桶左右。這一預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)歐佩克最近的減產(chǎn)在2024年初到期。鑒于我們對(duì)2023年下半年石油市場(chǎng)相對(duì)平衡的預(yù)測(cè)，我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年剩余時(shí)間的原油平均價(jià)格將為每桶86美元。”EIA繼續(xù)說(shuō)道。

EIA在STEO報(bào)告中概述稱，價(jià)格下行壓力將在2024年第二季度出現(xiàn)，“我們預(yù)計(jì)屆時(shí)全球原油庫(kù)存將開始大幅增加”。

EIA表示：“然而，由于這些增加依賴于歐佩克增加原油產(chǎn)量，這一時(shí)期預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性來(lái)自原油產(chǎn)量低于我們的預(yù)測(cè)，這可能導(dǎo)致原油價(jià)格高于我們的預(yù)測(cè)。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

USA EIA Increases Brent Oil Price Forecasts|

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its average Brent spot price forecast for both 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 11.

According to the April STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $85.01 per barrel this year and $81.21 per barrel next year. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released on March 7, projected that the Brent spot price would average $82.95 per barrel in 2023 and $77.57 per barrel in 2024. 

“The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $85 per barrel in 2023, up $2 per barrel from last month’s forecast,” the EIA stated in the latest STEO.

“The higher price forecast reflects a forecast for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption,” the EIA added.

“Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices,” the EIA warned in the STEO.

In its April STEO, the EIA noted that it expects global oil markets will be in relative balance over the coming year.

“Global oil inventories, which increased by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.1 million barrels per day in 1Q23 will be mostly unchanged during the second half of 2023,” the EIA said in the STEO.

“We expect builds will average about 0.5 million barrels per day beginning in 2024. This forecast assumes the recent OPEC cuts expire at the beginning of 2024. Given our forecast of relatively balanced oil markets in 2H23, we expect prices will average $86 per barrel for the rest of 2023,” the EIA continued.

In the STEO, the EIA outlined that downward price pressures emerge in the second quarter of 2024, “when we expect global oil inventories will begin to build more significantly”.

“However, because these builds depend on OPEC increasing its crude oil production, uncertainty in the forecast for this period comes from less oil production than we forecast, which could result in higher prices than in our forecast,” the EIA stated.